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Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Heads up for Gabrielle!

We are well into the late part of hurricane season, which means now is the time for eastern Canadians to pay particular attention.  Our fist threat of the season is Humberto, currently somewhere near Bermuda.  This storm is expected to affect Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, and PEI by Friday or Saturday.

The following is an email alert issued by the Canadian Hurricane Center...
Although the email title indicated Humberto as the threat, it is clear that we are currently looking at Gabrielle.
Humberto will however, possibly be right on her heals!



TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE REDEVELOPED AFTER SPENDING 4-AND-A-HALF DAYS DRIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WEAK TROPICAL LOW.  THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A MODERATE 'WIND SHEAR' ENVIRONMENT WHICH MAY LIMIT THE DEGREE OF INTENSIFICATION.  SOMETIMES 'SHEARED' STORMS CAN DISSIPATE QUICKLY OR EVEN INTENSIFY RAPIDLY - THERE IS LOW SCIENTIFIC SKILL IN PREDICTING INTENSITY CHANGE IN SYSTEMS LIKE THIS.  MOST COMPUTER MODELS KEEP IT GOING AS A 45-50-KNOTS TROPICAL STORM FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND TRACK IT OR THE REMNANTS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND LATER THIS WEEK.  MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN THEIR PREDICTION OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MARITIME PROVINCES FRIDAY MORNING.  THE MERGING OF FRONTS WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE OR TROPICAL STORMS, IN GENERAL, IS OFTEN A RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SO KEEP THIS IN MIND.

GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTATION OF A TRACK JUST EAST OF CAPE BRETON, HEAVY RAIN COULD BE AN ISSUE OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.  NEWFOUNDLAND IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ON THE 'WARMER' AND 'WINDIER' SIDE OF THE TRACK, BUT THIS PREDICTED PICTURE COULD EASILY SHIFT, SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO FORECAST UPDATES TO ESTABLISH A SENSE OF HOW THE FORECAST IS CHANGING.

A. WIND.

MUCH TOO EARLY TO QUOTE WIND SPEEDS.  BY THURSDAY MORNING WE WILL HAVE AN IDEA WHAT TO EXPECT IN TERMS OF WIND.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT NEWFOUNDLAND WOULD HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF WINDY CONDITIONS.

B. RAINFALL.

MUCH TOO EARLY TO QUOTE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  BY THURSDAY MORNING WE WILL HAVE AN IDEA WHAT TO EXPECT IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS.  FRONTS MERGING WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE/STORMS CAN CERTAINLY LEAD TO FLOODING RAINFALLS.  THIS MUST BE KEPT IN MIND ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE TRACK (WHICH AT THIS TIME INCLUDES NOVA SCOTIA, PEI AND WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND).

C. SURGE/WAVES.

TOO EARLY TO ESTIMATE MAGNITUDE.  WE WILL HAVE AN IDEA OF WAVE HEIGHTS LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY MORNING.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

IF THE STORM PERSISTS AND DEVELOPS FURTHER, HIGHEST WAVES AND WINDS WOULD BE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MARITIME AND MOST NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS.
TOO EARLY TO PREDICT DETAILS THOUGH.

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